Cycle Theories /not my special newly developed heretic weekly melody cycle therapy, left to me by the Circle of Mrs. Antal Szerb, a Proust-Fan in the 1930s Hungary – but the background of it in scientific tehories/.
The basic idea is that Agrarian Price Cycles have a – probably hormonal and inheritable – effect on each of us, and it is a cyclical effect.hence the only way to counterbalance is goes through music /having also hormonal levels/ and some ritualmelodies being also cyclical, repetitive, prone to weekly differences and hence the Weekly Therapy Melodies may neutralize the Ancestral Trauma /which we inherit from each Four Price Cycle Periods/.
Research Price Cycles
A. L. Tchijevsky’s Theory of Price Activity and Human Activity
Image illustrates variability of Price Cycles over the years they have been observed.
(Created by Robert A. Rohde/Global Warming Art which looks at relation of sunspots and global warming.)
That sunspot cycle activity paralleling Price Cycle increases and decreases in a cycle of approximately 11 years was established in the 1750s when astronomers began to make the first charts of the numbers of sunspots over time. During World War I, A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy and Biological Physics who continued his studies at the war front, noticed that particularly severe battles regularly followed each solar flare during the sunspot peak period of 1916-17.
To test his hypothesis that sunspot cycle influenced human activity, Tchijevsky constructed an Index of Mass Human Excitability covering each year form 500 BC to 1922 AD. He then investigated the histories of 72 countries during that period, noting signs of human unrest such as wars, revolutions, riots, expeditions and migrations, plus the numbers of humans involved. Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant events occurred during the 5 years of maximum sunspot activity. (Tchijevsky’s merely noting that the 1917 Russian Revolution occurred during the height of the sunspot cycle earned him almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged Marxist dialectics.)
Tchijevsky divided the eleven year sunspot cycle into four social periods:
Period 1: (approximately 3 years, minimum sunspot activity). Peace, lack of unity among the masses, election of conservatives, autocratic, minority rule.
It is called Brother Years /or Chest Years/
Sister Years -Back
Period 3: (Approximately 3 years, maximum sunspot activity). Maximum excitability, election of liberals or radicals, mass demonstrations, riots, revolutions, wars and resolution of most pressing demands.
Tchijevsky did not believe solar disturbances caused discontent as much as they acted as detonators that set off the smoldering discontent of the masses–discontent often channeled into war by their rulers. Nor did he deny that even during minimum solar activity some people would rebel against intolerable conditions or that nations would seek advantage through war and conquest. Some have since noted that the number of sunspots during any period may not be as significant as whether there is a rapid increase in the numbers, triggering unexpected passions.
Anyway, music therapy may have an effect: if we do contain some Ancestral hormonal stress-memories, we may diminish their toxic effect by a trauma-contemporary music. Each week has a majority melody /computed following some heretic relgious repetitive mantra like singing whose melodies may be contained in – trauma-contemporary – classical music too./
The Evidence: Historical Events During Sunspot Cycle Heights (1750-2000)
Below are just a small sampling of the many riots, rebellions, revolutions and wars
which have accompanied the sunspot cycle maximum or height.
Charts of sunspot numbers were first kept in 1749.
See NASA’s actual monthly numbers 1749-2005.
1750 – 1800
|1770-75||Boston Massacre, Committees of Correspondence and militias start forming, Boston Tea party, Battles of Lexington and Concord got ball rolling so that from 1776-79 Independence was declared and war of American Revolution fought|
|1788-91||French Revolution, US Constitution written|
1800 – 1900
|1803-1806||Napoleon conquers Europe|
|1815-17||Two wars to defeat Napoleon; German, English and Serbian riots; Brazil, Chile and Argentina declare independence|
|1828-32||Revolts in Turkey, Mexico, Belgium, Poland, France, Britain; Virginia slave revolt|
|1837-40||Constitutional revolts in Canada, slavery debate outlawed in US, Texas Independence, Boer separatists occupy African lands, British-Afghan war; Opium War|
|1848-51||Revolts and revolutions in Poland, Switzerland, Paris, Vienna, Berlin, Milan, Venice, Naples, Prague, Budapest, Warsaw; US Mexican War starts; Taiping Rebellion starts|
|1858-61||American Civil War begins; revolts in India, Italy, China|
|1869-72||Franco-Prussian War; Paris Revolutionary Commune|
|1883-86||Big US labor strikes, revolt in Sudan, First Indian Congress meets|
|1893-95||Zulu revolt, Cuban revolution|
1900 – 1960
|1905-08||German miners, Hottentots, Turks, Indians, Honduras, Russians revolt|
|1916-18||World War I, Irish and Indian revolts, Russian Revolution|
|1927-31||Mussolini and Hitler build power on economic unrest; revolts in Vienna, China; formation of Red Army; Spanish Republic formed; mass civil disobedience in India|
|1937-40||US steel strike, Spanish Civil War, Germany and Japan start World War II, mass civil disobedience in India|
|1947-51||Greek Civil War, First Israeli-Arab War, Indian-Pakistani riots, Red Army conquers China, Vietnam revolts, Korean War|
|1957-60||Israel invades Sinai, Hungarian uprising, Cuban revolution, civil rights movement in US, French-Algerian war, MauMau revolt, Iraq revolt, numerous African nations gain independence|
1961-2007 – Significant Events Organized According to Tchijevsky’s Four Periods
A more detailed (though hardly exhaustive) listing of the most significant events of the last 40 years,
divided into Tchijevsky’s four periods, shows similar correlations.
|Peace/Repression Period 1961-64||Cuban Missile Crisis, Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, active civil rights period|
|Increase Period 1965-66||500,000 troops sent to Vietnam, first big anti-war marches, first US inner city riots, China cultural revolution begins|
|Maximum Period 1967-69||Height of Vietnam War, peace demonstrations, worldwide student uprisings, Chinese cultural revolution continues, Czechoslovakian uprising/USSR invasion, US inner city riots, Israeli Arab war, Woodstock and height of hippy movement|
|Decrease Period 1970-72||Women’s movement takes off as student movement slacks off, India-Pakistan war, Nixon visits China for détente, Vietnam War winds down/Paris Peace talks, Bangladesh independence, Communist Allende elected in Chile|
|Peace/Repression Period 1973-75||Vietnam War ends, Wounded Knee Occupation, Chilean military overthrows Allende, Yom Kipper War and oil embargo, Nixon resigns, Greek and Ethiopian dictators deposed, Helsinki peace accords, Khmer Rouge begin Cambodian massacres, civil war begins in Lebanon|
|Increase Period 1976-78||Camp David Egypt-Israeli Peace accords, Pakistan military coup, war in Ethiopia and Zaire, Sandinista rebels fighting in Nicaragua, military coups in Afghanistan, first big anti-nuclear power demonstrations|
|Maximum Period 1979-82||Polish Solidarity takes off, US anti-tax movement reaches heights and elects Reagan, Shah of Iran overthrown, Iraq-Iran war begins, USSR invadesAfghanistan, Falklands War, Sandinistas oust Somas, Zimbabwe gains independence, big worldwide anti-nuclear and peace demonstrations|
|Decrease Period 1981-83||US aid to “contras” in Nicaragua, US invades Grenada, Tamils rebel in Sri Lanka, Israel invades Lebanon, Greens elected in Germany|
|Peace/Repression Period 1984-86||Israel withdraws from Lebanon, South Africa riots put down by government, Philippines ousts Marcos, Sikh rebellions/riots in India, US war on drugs accelerates|
|Increase Period 1987-88||Palestinian Intifada begins, Eastern European dissidents organize, USSR & US sign missile treaty, USSR begins pullout from Afghanistan|
|Maximum Period 1989-91||Chinese student uprising crushed, peaceful revolutions in Eastern Europe, dissolution of Soviet Union/end of Communist Party domination, Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait, end of apartheid in South Africa, beginnings of patriot and militia movements in US, Somalia civil war, Yugoslavia begins slaughter in Bosnia, Sandinistas lose Nicaraguan elections|
|Decrease Period 1992-94||Czechoslovakia divides into Czech and Slovak republics, Afghan rebels capture Kabul, protests over Waco massacre, Republicans take US congress, Mandela becomes President, Arafat returns to Palestine, Rwanda massacres begin, Los Angeles riots.|
|Peace/Repression Period 1995-97||Peace process begins in Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Croation-Serbian Peace accords, Israeli-Palestinian Peace accords, FBI increases power after Oklahoma City bombing, busts of “right wing” activists, US rate of incarceration becomes highest in world, China and Northern Korea war threats mediated|
|Increase Period 1998-99||Peace treaty in Northern Ireland, big peace protests versus Iraq war, overthrow of Indonesia’s Suharto, India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons, US and European youth/student riots, Serbian-KLA conflicts increase and US/NATO decides to “resolve” conflict through massive bombing of the whole nation, Russian repeatedly warns of possibility of Nuclear War over the bombing, India-Pakistan skirmishes over Kashmir increase; militias burn East Timor, drive people into camps in West Timor; big and unusually violent demonstrations at WTO meeting in Seattle; rising religious strife in India and Indonesia.|
|Maximum Period 2000-03|
Peace treaty disrupted in Northern Ireland; rioting and guerrilla war in Kosovo; land confiscations in Zimbabwe; Miami protests over Elian Gonzales; Seattle, Washington DC, Prague, Goteborg, Quebec City, Genoa and other worldwide protests vs. WTO/IMF/World Bank; rallies for and against Confederate flag in US; Israeli leader Ariel Sharon’s and Lukkid Party’s provocation of Palestinians to renewed rioting and terrorism; increasing civil war in Indonesia, Sierra Leone and Sri Lanka; overthrow of Milosevic in Serbia; Republicans and Democrats protest the U.S. Presidential elections; September 11, 2001 Terrorist attacks on World Trade Center/Pentagon and violent U.S. response; anti-war protests throughout the world; violent riots in India and fears of India-Pakistan nuclear war; quickly organizing worldwide antiwar movement against U.S. invasion of Iraq; No. Korea and Iran angrily react to Bush’s threats of pre-emptive military action.Decrease Period 2004-2006Number and size of anti-war protests slowly diminish, even as intensity of rebellionvs. Iraq occupation increases In Iraq; Muslim youth launch massive riots in France;Korea and Libya make deals with U.S.; Iran cracks down further on dissidents; Bush passes Military Commissions Act 2006 and other laws making it easier to impose martial law and jail Americans without trial; interest in legal means of change like elections and impeachment grows; Israel bombs Lebanon to little worldwide protest;First North American Secessionist conference.Peace/Repression Period 2007-2010
(Cycle 24 a little slow getting started)Little world activism versus threatened US and Israel Middle East and Iran attacks; Bush allows one to one talks with North Korean and Iran raising hopes of peace; US/Israel find it difficult to get UN military action on Darfur; leaders of Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Ecuador, Iran crack down on independent media, electoral and other dissidents; “Tea Party” protests and left and right wing Americans increase secession chatter
David A. Juckett and Barnett Rosenberg (1993) Correlation of Human Longevity Oscillations with Sunspot Cycles. Radiation Research: March 1993, Vol. 133, No. 3, pp. 312-320.
Correlation of Human Longevity Oscillations with Sunspot Cycles
David A. Juckett and Barnett Rosenberg
An examination of past human mortality trends revealed that the mean longevity of birth cohorts from 1740 to 1900 for United States of America (U.S.) Congressional Representatives exhibited oscillations that coincided with the 9- to 12-year sunspot cycle. Cohort mean longevities were 2-3 years greater during times of low sunspot activity than at peak activity. This phenomenon was confirmed in data from members of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom Parliament and from University of Cambridge alumni. An additional longevity oscillation with a longer period was visible in the data and may also be related to sunspot cycles. The amplitude and frequency modulations in the longevity and sunspot oscillations aligned when a 20-year phase shift was incorporated. This shift requires the existence of a lag between solar changes and the affected birth cohorts. Several possible causes of the effect are discussed, in particular: radiation on primordial germ cells in developing embryos; influenza epidemics and pandemics; and weather. The size of the longevity oscillation requires that the solar effect must be considered in studies that examine longevity trends and risk estimation.
Sunspot Cycles & Their Influence On Human History
What Are Sun Spots:
Sunspots are seen as “small” dark spots on the surface of the sun. They are easy to observe and count if the sunlight is strongly filtered. They were first noticed (in Western record) in the year 325 BC by Theophrastus, an Hellenic scientist, and they have been counted on a regular basis since the middle of the 17th century. They come and go in cycles which average about 11 years, as shown in Chart 101 above.
These “small” dark spots are conceived by modern astrophysicists to be intense “bubbles” of magnetic energy which somehow cool down the hot gasses within so that they appear dark compared with the surrounding solar atmosphere. These “cool” bubbles are not really very small, they are quite often the size of the Earth and many times giant spots many times the Earth can be seen. Many more physical facts about them can be can be found on the NASA and NOAA websites.
A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy and Biological Physics, noticed during World War I that particularly severe battles followed solar flares. Since the sunspots were in a peak period during 1916-17, no doubt the war and its various battles were heavily stimulated by the energies which are boiling off the Sun. Intrigued by the connection of human behavior to solar physics, Tchijevsky constructed an “Index of Mass Human Excitability”. He compiled the histories of 72 countries from 500 BC to 1922 AD to provide a strong database to articulate his correlations. After rating the most significant events, Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant human events, mostly related to war and violence, occurred during the 5 years or so of maximum sunspot activity.
Tchijevsky went on to observe that the 1917 Russian Revolution occurred during the height of Sunspot Cycle. Unfortunately, this was one of science’s most costly observations, it earned Tchijevsky almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged “Marxist dialectics”.
The “solar” connection to terrestrial events has been studied ever since then, but most of the focus has been on the sun itself or on the impact of the cycle on the climate, weather, agriculture, commodity markets, and other non-human phenomenon. Awareness of the human impact, which is far more significant than the well known impact of the Full Moon, has remained highly retarded. Modern humans, unlike the ancient cultures of Egypt, Sumer, Bhararti, Maya, and China, are highly reluctant to admit that their collective behavior is influenced strongly by the Sun. They prefer tobelieve that reason rules their societies.
Chart 101, above, was compiled by compressing all of the average monthly sunspot counts for the past 254 years into this simple graph to show the full range of variation in the average monthly number of sunspots. 23 distinct cycles are shown here, beginning with a peak year in 1749. This chart, and all the others used in this Section, are based on what is called the “ISSN”, which is an acronym for the “International Sun Spot Number” which is the consensus count made by observatories every day.
As can be seen in the chart, there is a great deal of variation in the average monthly counts and these in turn make quite a variation in the size and width of the 23 sunspot cycles. Note that there are three sunspot cycle peaks which did not have monthly peaks in excess of 100 and there were at least five with monthly peaks which reached 250 or more. That is quite a range for a dynamic cycle and we should expect that the effects in the solar system and in the Earth will show a similar variation. Most likely “the shadow” of the solar cycles can be readily seen in thousands of chemical, mineral, biological, and economic data series which scientists make by studying plants, minerals, and human history. And most likely “the shadow” varies considerably.
The official International Sunspot Number, which is also known by NOAA as “RI”, is issued by the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC) in Brussels. The ISSN comes in three flavors, a daily count, a monthly average, and a yearly average. You can also use “smoothed” numbers, which round off the numbers. Astrophysicists may have a use for smoothed numbers, but for connecting the Sun with weather and human events, the simple counts and averages are generally far more appropriate. Data and plots are available from the SIDC website or at the NOAA website
Detailed graphs of each sunspot cycle can be found at John Alvestad’s website. These can be used for paralleling events with sunspot peaks. A great quantity of explanatory material and various sunspot numbers are provided by NASA. This webpage is useful for explaining sunspot numbers: Sunspots
A huge, ultra-wide sunspot chart which shows each year since 1749 in complete clarity can be found in the Earth Systems Monitor
History Cycle Table
The following History Cycle Table is based on the average annual ISSN sunspot number. For defining “peak periods”, one has to set a “bar” for what constitutes a “peak”. Is it 100? if so, we lose several cycles. If it is 50, we gain them all, but the periods are “fat” and include a lot of years in between years which may not be very significant. Most likely, to see the validity of the connection of sunspot peaks with human violence, it is best to set the bar “high” to narrow the number of years. If the major wars all fall within these limited number of narrow bands, it is clear that the connection is very real.
To make sure we include all sunspot cycles, the year of the maximum average sunspot count in every cycle was used to define the high point of the solar cycle. The year before and the year after it are added to define the “nominal’ sunspot peak years. For the sunspot cycles with high counts over a longer period of time, a “bar” was set at 100 and all years which were above 100 were included in the “peak” for that period.
This is an arbitrary method because the sunspots vary considerably in peak size and also because each of them has a somewhat different peak width. In truth, it is hard to generalize specifically about a sunspot peak because of the high degree of individuality and variability which they show.
This method was adopted mainly because of the thesis that human reactions are not caused so much by the absolute numbers of sunspots, but by substantial “changes” in the numbers which drive “shifts” in human mental and emotional processes By using this “dual” method for defining a peak , we have a simple, convenient way to define the periods of maximum change regardless of the numbers.
The information in the following table is of course merely illustrative. The number of wars and major economic events which “connect” with the sunspot cycle peaks are much larger than the small number of “major events” which are included here. I have omitted data for the first seven earliest cycles. Prior to the first named solar cycle, which is called Solar Cycle 1, there were at least five cycles for which there is a good consistent profile of daily counts. For students: filling these in with your own school reading and learning assignments would make a first class term paper.
Early Solar Cycle Peaks: 1704-1770
Solar Cycle 1: 1760-1762
Solar Cycle 2: 1768-1770
Solar Cycle 3: 1777-1779
Solar Cycle 4: 1786-1788
|1789||US Constitution adopted|
Solar Cycle 5: 1803-1805 under 100 wide (1802-1806)
Solar Cycle 6: 1815-1817 under 100
|1815-1817 Maximum Years, Mother/Eye||Two wars to defeat Napoleon; German, English and Serbian riots; Brazil, Chile and Argentina declare independence.|
Solar Cycle 7: 1829-1831 under 100
Mother Maximal Years- Eye
|Revolts in Turkey, Mexico, Belgium, Poland, France, Britain; Virginia slave revolt; the Black underground railroad begins|
Solar Cycle 8: 1836-1838
|1837-1840||Constitutional revolts in Canada, slavery debate outlawed in US, Texas Independence, Boer separatists occupy African lands, British-Afghan war; Opium War|
|1837 Mother-Maximum||Major Banking Crisis in the U.S.|
Solar Cycle 9 Maximum: 1847-1849
Minimum: 1843-44 /Brother – Chest/
|1848-1851||Revolts and revolutions in Poland, Switzerland, Paris, Vienna, Berlin, Milan, Venice, Naples, Prague, Budapest, Warsaw; US Mexican War starts; Taiping Rebellion starts
János Xántus flees from prison in 1851
Solar Cycle 10 /Maximum,Mother Eye Years/: 1859-1861
|1858||Bottom year of a depression in the U.S.|
|1861||American Civil War begins|
|1861-1865||Civil War in America, revolts in India, Italy, China|
Solar Cycle 11 /Maximum,Mother/: 1869-1871 wide 1869-1872
|1869-1872||Paris Revolutionary Commune|
Solar Cycle 12/Maxima-Mothers/: 1882-1884 under 100
Counterbalancing Music in 1882 /Mother Years/ Tchaikovsky, Wagner, Brahms
Minimum: Brother Year 1867
|1883-1886||Big US labor strikes, revolt in Sudan, First Indian Congress meets|
|1883||Bottom year of a major depression in the U.S.|
Solar Cycle 13:/Max.Mother/ 1892-1894 under 100
Death of Prince Rudolf
|1893-1895||Zulu revolt, Cuban revolution|
Maximal Solar Cycle 14: 1905-1907 under 100
|1905-1908||first revolts begin in Russia|
|1905-1908||Widespread strikes, revolts among German miners, Hottentots, Turks, Indians, Honduras|
|1908||Bottom year of a short depression|
Maximal Solar Cycle 15: 1916-1918 just barely 100
|1914-1918||First World War|
|1916-18||Irish and Indian revolts|
|1919||The Atom is Split|
Mximum Solar Cycle 16: 1927-1929
|1927-1929||Fabled American Bull Run ends in crash of the stock market in long slow slide which bottoms in 1933|
|1926||Hitler in jail for NAZI’s attempted Munich Putsch, begins writing Mein Kampf which outlines how he will lead Germany to make the world’s greatest power.|
|1927-1931||Mussolini and Hitler build power on economic unrest; revolt in Vienna and China; formation of Red Army; Spanish Republic formed; mass civil disobedience in India launches Ghandi’s campaign to free India|
Maximal Solar Cycle 17: 1936-1938 wide 1936-1939
Minimum : 1933-34
Murder of Serbian King Alexander,friend of Proust in his youth
|1936-1939||Spanish Civil War, Germany and Japan start World War II|
|1937-1940||US steel strike|
Solar Cycle Maximum 18: 1947-1949 wide 1947-1950
|1946-1949||Greek Civil War, India-Pakistan riots, Red Army wins China, Vietnam revolts|
|1947 – 1948||Flying saucer sightings begin, saucer crashes in Roswell, NM, “shadow” government is set up inside the military industrial complex with the CIA to fight communism and hide the remains of ET|
|1948||Ghandi assassinated, Israel’s War for Independence|
Solar Cycle Maximum 19: 1956-1958
|1957 – 1960||Israel invades Sinai, Hungarian uprising, Cuban revolution, civil rights movement begins in US, French-Algerian war, MauMau revolt, Iraq revolt,|
|1957||Vietnam War begins|
|1960-1961||Eisenhower warns of the danger of “shadows” in the unfettered military industrial complex, Kennedy “race to the moon” begins|
Solar Cycle Maximum 20: 1967-1969
|1965- 1967||Haight-Ashbury Flower Children launch the hippie movement|
|1967-69||Height of Vietnam War, peace demonstrations, worldwide student uprisings, Czechoslovakian uprising/USSR invasion, US inner city riots, Israeli Arab war, Woodstock and height of hippy movement,|
|1968||Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy assassinated , first big anti-war marches in US, first US inner city riots,|
|1969||First public men on Moon|
Solar Cycle Maximum 21: 1978-1980
murder of Lord Mountbatten, youth friend of Chaplin
Lord Mountbatten as Indian Vice-Roi
Minimum /Brother/Year: 1976
|1978||World’s First Test Tube Baby Born, Carter Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt|
|1979||Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant leaks radiation|
|1979-82||Polish Solidarity begins, US anti-tax movement reaches heights and elects Reagan, Shah of Iran overthrown, Iraq-Iran war begins, USSR invades Afghanistan, Falklands War, Sandinistas oust Somas, Zimbabwe gains independence, anti-nuclear and peace demonstrations increase worldwide, US aid to “contras” in Nicaragua, US invades Grenada, Tamils rebel in Sri Lanka|
|1979-1980||US Bid to Rescue Hostages Fails|
|1980||Iran-Iraq War begins (lasts until next peak in 1988)|
|1981||President. Sadat of Egypt assassinated|
|1982:||Israel Invades S Lebanon, Falklands War|
Solar Cycle MAximum 22: 1988-1990
|1987-88||Palestinian Infiltada begins, Eastern European dissidents organize, USSR & US sign missile treaty, USSR begins pullout from Afghanistan|
|1987||Crash in World Stock Markets|
|1989||Tianamen Square Chinese student democracy movement crushed|
|1989||Protest and peaceful revolution in Eastern Bloc, dismantling of Berlin Wall,|
|1989-1992||Glasnost process begins dissolution of Soviet Union, end of Communist Party domination; Communist Party coup in Russia fails|
|1989-91||End of apartheid in South Africa, beginnings of patriot and militia movements in US, Somalia civil war, Yugoslavia begins slaughter in Bosnia, Sandinistas lose Nicaraguan elections|
|1990||Mandela Released, East and West Germany Re-Unite|
|1990||Iraqi Troops Invade Kuwait|
|1991||The Gulf War; multi-national forces liberate Kuwait from Iraq, Balkan Civil War begins as communist Yugoslavia collapses.|
Solar Cycle Maximum 23: 1999-2001
|1998-2000||Peace treaty in Northern Ireland, overthrow of Indonesia’s Suharto, Serbian-KLA conflicts increase and US/ NATO decides to “resolve” conflict through massive bombing of the whole nation, India-Pakistan skirmishes over Kashmir increase; militias burn East Timor, drive people into camps in West Timor; big demonstrations at WTO meeting in Seattle; rising religious strife in India and Indonesia, increasing civil war in Sierra Leone and Sri Lanka; overthrow of Milosevic in Serbia;|
|1999||Worldwide Y2K Scare|
|1999||Palestinian Infiltada re-commences after “virtual agreement” with Israel|
|2000||Dot-com bubble breaks; Supreme Court intrudes in the U.S. elections, throws results of Florida vote to make the loser of the popular vote into a winner of the electoral vote to become the U.S. President made by judicial interference.|
|2001||Attack on World Trade Center and Pentagon; War on Terrorism begins|
|2000-02||Peace treaty disrupted in Northern Ireland; land confiscations in Zimbabwe; worldwide protests against WTO/IMF/World Bank in Seattle, Washington DC, Prague, Goteborg, Quebec City, Genoa and other cities|
|2002-2003||Bush diverts War on Terrorism into personal vendetta against Saddam Hussein, massive protests demonstrate against Iraq war
Minimum /Brother Year / Autocratic intensity 2006
tv-attack in Budapest 2006:
Chart 102: Sunspots Cycles & Last Two Recessions
Sunspots Cycles & Last Two Recessions
In the History Cycle Table, it is easy to see that both political and economic affairs are profoundly caught up and influenced by the “waves” of sunspot energy. The connections are even easier to spot if we see the sunspot cycle in greater detail. In Chart 102 above, just two cycles are displayed, the current one out of which we are gradually emerging and the last one which took the world on a highly transformative ride from 1988 to 1992.
The monthly average counts are shown in the jiggly line and the “smoothed” average annual curve is shown to better define the overall cycle. As we can see from this chart, the first “Bush” recession in 1991 came during the last part of Cycle 22. It was preceded, of course, by the 1987 crash in world stock markets which came just as Cycle 23 was on its way up.
The most recent “bubble” crash in 2000 initiated a recession which began almost immediately. Though Republican propagandists are now trying to convince people that the recession ended in 2001, massive job losses through to 2003 suggest that the recession did not end until, maybe, sometime during the early part of 2003. It remains arguable in July 2003 that the recession is in fact not yet over.
Chart 103: Sunspot Cycles & Major Economic Contractions 1926-2003
Chart 103: Sunspot Cycles & Major Economic Contractions 1926-2003
How strong is this historical connection between major economic downturns and the sunspot cycles? We can learn more about this connection of sunspots to economic downturns by directly graphing them together in Chart 103, above. Quite clearly, Chart 103 shows us that there is a rather strong connection between major recessions and the peaks of the sunspot cycles. There was one major exception, the last Great Depression, the bottom year of which (1933) can be seen in the trough between sunspot peaks. The next Great Depression may parallel this exception nearly to a T.
Can this historical connection be used to predict stock prices? Is there a correlation between sunspot peaks and the Dow Jones Industrials? (Dow Jones Industrials: these are select stock prices often referred to as the DJI) There is no usable connection except as a harbinger of a coming break. There is zero correlation between daily price movements and average daily sunspot numbers. Is there a connection between long term historical trends in the prices and average monthly or annual trends in the numbers of the sunspots? Not really, the only direct connection that appears is as a “breaking” signal. During a sunspot peak, the speculative Bull Run bubbles in stocks “break” and an economic recession begins fairly soon thereafter. This often leaves the stock prices headed down even while sunspots are still rising. This destroys any statistical averages which can be used for prediction.
As can be seen in the graph, there is a decidedly strong parallel between recessions and the peaks. It has been consistent throughout most of the century with one notable exception. The bottom year of the Great Depression in 1932/33 was at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. The collapse of the stock market, however, paralleled right on the peak of the solar cycle in late 1929. Stock prices slid as sunspot numbers slid, and the economy wallowed as sunspot counts reached 0.
We may be paralleling the 1929 to 1933 era. There is probably a strong tendency in this era to continue to slide after the bubble break in 2000 for a few years until all of the speculation has been squeezed out of stock prices. From the Bears, we already know that this means stock prices generally must fall yet another 35% to 75% from their levels in June 2003, depending upon the industry and the company.
This will eventually probably be the outcome of the current 25 year long depression cycle and we are likely to catch up with this inevitability in 2006 and 2007. In the meantime, most likely we are currently still buoyed up by massive subsidy stimulation, 70 years of institutional barriers, and various social security buffers. This may be enough to create a very modest “faux” bubble amidst a “jobless” economic recovery.
Bibliography & Notes
Section One – What This Report Is About
“25 Year Economic Depression Cycle” by Edgar Cayce, see “Return of the Phoenix Book Two: The Great Breakup” by MW Mandeville; MetaSyn Media 1999; p. 181
Mandeville, Michael Wells: “Return of the Phoenix: A Trilogy In Three Volumes“; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999.
Mandeville, Michael Wells: “Return of the Phoenix: Book One – The Veil“; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999.
Mandeville, Michael Wells: “Return of the Phoenix: Book Two – The Great Break-Up“; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999
Mandeville, Michael Wells: “Return of the Phoenix: Book Three – The Prophecies“; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999.
Mandeville, Michael Wells: “Return of the Phoenix CD-ROM“; All three volumes of the Trilogy are included in four versions: (1) elaborately illustrated in html form for reading with any web browser, (2) in Acrobat PDF documents, (3) in MS Word 7.0 (PC) documents, and (4) as MS Word For Macintosh 5.1 documents; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999. Also available on the Iway at MichaelMandeville.com/
Cycle length before 1700
Solar cycle length 1500-1990
Several attempts have been made to extend the sunspot record back in time. Since the occurrence of low-latitude auroral displays is known to be controlled by solar activity it has been generally accepted that they may be used as proxy data in the study of the 11-year sunspot variation. Sunspot numbers prior to 1750 as well as epochs of maxima and minima have been computed from catalogues of auroral sightings from Central Europe and East Asia, but the reliability of this data set has Seen questioned (Eddy 1976). However, an improved record of the number of auroral nights for the past 500 years was published by Silverman (1992). In his presentation of the secular variation of low-latitude aurora 1500-1948 there is a clear indication of a decadal variation of the number of auroras also prior to 1750.
Silverman’s figures have been used to estimate the epochs of minimum occurrence of low-latitude auroral displays and sunspots during the interval 1500-1948 (Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995). It was not found justified to try to make a similar estimate for sunspot maxima, since it is known that maximum auroral frequency may be delayed several years relative to the sunspot maximum, depending on the character of the actual solar cycle.
The overlap in time between 1750 and 1948 of the auroral cycle curve derived from Silverman’s auroral frequencies with the solar cycle curve makes a direct comparison of the two curves possible. From Fig.5, in which the two time series have been plotted together (after smoothing with the Gleissman filter), it is seen that they are nearly identical within the uncertainty of the determination.
In the following we have therefore represented the complete long-term variation of the solar cycle length from 1500 to 1990 by cycle lengths derived from minimum epochs inferred from Silverman’s auroral data during the interval 1500-1749 followed by the cycle lengths derived from the already existing list of sunspot minimum epochs based on direct solar observations (Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995). The smoothed series of solar cycle lengths are shown graphically in Fig.6.
The Northern Lights: a clue about the real cause of Global Warming?
Jennifer McClure firstname.lastname@example.org
44-year cycles: Sunspot numbers; post office revenues; wheat prices, tree rings width…
And here is a contemporary article (by Gorbanev) with the dates of spot Minima and Maxima: